Q2 2025 Insights and recommendations for shippers and carriers
Updated June 24, 2025
As we move through the second quarter of 2025, the freight market continues to navigate uncertainty. While the market was headed for a gradual recovery before tariffs, any increases to the average tariff rate could begin to impact demand. To stay ahead and navigate potential volatility as new challenges and opportunities emerge, logistics teams need to be proactive and data-driven.
Our latest Quarterly Market Update and Outlook Report provides valuable insights to help shippers, carriers, and logistics professionals make informed decisions. This quarter (Q2 2025), we’ll examine the latest trends in U.S. truckload, LTL, and cross-border freight, as well as key factors impacting the global supply chain.
U.S. trucking: Navigating a shifting landscape
With the average tariff sitting around 18% after trade agreements and temporary tariff suspensions, there is still uncertainty surrounding where the rate will land after the 90-day pause on July 9th.
Currently, a 1% increase in the average tariff rate could decrease truckload demand by 0.15% to 0.25%. This means a 10% rate could reduce demand by about 2%, whereas rates of 18% to 28% could reduce demand by 4% to 6%. If this occurs, ocean will be the most affected, followed by intermodal and truckload. Containerized imports may also be impacted, depending on the final tariff and trade agreements between China and the U.S.
While more time is needed to see the true impact of tariffs and evolving policies, the U.S. truckload market is shifting. Although seasonality continues to remain the primary driver, and supply hasn’t yet seen any impact from tariffs, the manufacturing economy is contracting. There is also early indication of tighter capacity, with truckload carrier balance sheet data indicating that carrier profitability fell to its lowest levels since Q1 2010.
Spot rates also remain approximately 18% below operating costs per loaded mile, but are currently following seasonal trends. Typically, spot rates experience a rapid increase from late May into early June, with tightness in southern markets like Florida, California, Texas, and Arizona due to the summer produce season. As produce volume decreases after the 4th of July, the market will likely soften, except in California, where shippers are preparing for peak season.
That said, shippers should be watching the market and prepared for potential volatility, as the spot rate increase between April and July often indicates the market’s trend for the remainder of the year. While uncertain, the possibility of new tariffs and higher inflation could lead to increased pressure on rates and market tightening. Now is the time for shippers to solidify relationships with key carriers and keep mitigation strategies top of mind.
Our recommendations:
For shippers:
Maintain high first tender acceptance (FTA) rates by establishing strategic relationships with key providers in your network and fostering long-term, collaborative goals.
To navigate volatility, partner with strategic carriers to gain cost and price transparency within your network. Create an action plan to address out-of-process lanes proactively.
Stay informed about market conditions and adjust your transportation strategies accordingly. Consider diversifying your carrier base and exploring alternative modes of transportation to mitigate risk.
For carriers:
Focus on building strong relationships with shippers who value long-term partnerships and prioritize fair rates.
Optimize operations and improve efficiency to maintain profitability in a potentially volatile market.
Stay informed about market trends and adjust pricing strategies accordingly.