Pulse check on cross-border logistics: What shippers should be watching now
Over the past year, cross-border logistics has faced growing uncertainty. On July 1, 2026, the U.S. declined to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), moving it into a cycle of annual reviews. While negotiations are still in progress, they have raised questions about how supply chains and cross-border economies could change in the future.
But while the industry awaits what’s next, the USMCA is only one piece of the cross-border puzzle. Recent flooding in Laredo, changing regulations, and evolving tariff policy are also reshaping the operating environment, creating new challenges for cross-border logistics.
Based on what we’re seeing across our network, Uber Freight is encouraging customers to stay flexible and plan ahead. While freight continues to move steadily today, the ability to adapt quickly will become increasingly important as conditions evolve.
What we’re seeing right now
Headlines surrounding the U.S. declining to renew the USMCA have largely focused on the potential impact to cross-border trade. Much of the discussion centers on the potential effects it could have on cross-border businesses, like those in Texas, and industries heavily reliant on trade, like automotive, manufacturing, and agriculture.
But while these developments could reshape cross-border logistics over time, Uber Freight’s network data indicates freight volumes remain steady across North America:
United States: Shippers are still planning around a tightening market with higher truckload rates, lower carrier acceptance, and stronger cross-border demand. In particular, shippers are watching for potential changes to rules of origin, Chinese content requirements, and automotive sourcing.
Mexico: Even as capacity tightens and structural costs increase, produce exports through Laredo were up 8% YoY in Q2 and the value of Port Laredo trade rose 19.36% in May compared to the same month last year.
Canada: Freight is still moving steadily, even with new tax rules, immigration constraints, and U.S. border enforcement. Currently, shippers are prioritizing dependable capacity over short-term savings in preparation for additional regulation changes.
Together, these trends suggest that customer networks are stable, but maintaining that stability may become more challenging as negotiations continue and policies evolve. As shippers look toward the future, the window to plan for complexity is narrowing.
What challenges does cross-border logistics face now?
The factors most likely to impact cross-border logistics right now fall into two categories: policy changes that could structurally reshape the market and operational disruptions that test network resiliency in the near term.
Understanding both is essential for planning today while preparing for what’s next.
Policy risks that could structurally change the market
Following the expiration of the temporary Section 122 tariffs—which the Trump administration put in place after the Supreme Court invalidated IEEPA tariffs—on July 24, 2026, new replacement measures were introduced.
The first was new duties on imports from more than 80 countries under Section 301. These tariffs range from 10% to 12.5% and went into effect immediately. The second is under Section 338, which imposes 50% tariffs on a variety of Canadian exports, including cement, plywood, paper, and wine. These are set to go into effect in August and will also apply to goods covered under the USMCA.
Combined with the ongoing uncertainty around the future of the USMCA, the use of Section 338 could signal a shift from trilateral agreements toward bilateral agreements. If this happens, the U.S. would negotiate with Mexico and Canada separately, which could affect future costs and regulations.
Along with tariffs, there have been reports of stricter cabotage enforcement and oversight. As of June 26, 2026, FMCSA data for Mexican-domiciled carriers shows a 6.3% decline in the number of active southern border carriers compared to December 26, 2025—likely a result of cabotage enforcement and English proficiency requirements. For southbound freight, this means longer transit times, higher costs, increased congestion, and reduced driver capacity, creating ongoing challenges for cross-border shippers.
Operational disruptions impacting networks today
While policy changes can reshape the market over time, operational disruptions can affect freight immediately.
The recent flooding in Laredo illustrates how quickly localized disruptions can affect cross-border operations. The flooding created significant delays, long wait times, and a heavy backlog as border authorities processed a high volume of accumulated freight. Congestion also spread to alternate crossings as freight was rerouted, demonstrating how a single disruption can have a ripple effect on cross-border logistics.
Staying ahead of the curve
As market volatility and operational disruptions continue, cross-border networks are likely to become more complex. This creates a finite window of opportunity for shippers to build greater optionality into their supply chains and reevaluate how freight moves across their networks.
While many are using the 30-day window before Section 338 tariffs go into effect to expedite shipments, this is only one part of the equation. Rather than making broad changes in response to every headline, shippers should use this time to identify their most exposed corridors, establish clear contingency plans, and secure reliable capacity before conditions change.
Here’s what Uber Freight experts recommend:
Assess risk at the lane and shipment level. Identify freight that could be affected by tariffs, rules-of-origin changes, limited carrier availability, or reliance on a single border crossing. This helps prioritize planning around the parts of the network where disruption would have the greatest impact on cost and service.
Define contingency plans for critical corridors. Establish alternate border crossings, modes, and carriers, along with what conditions could trigger shifts, like higher rejection rates, rising costs, or service disruptions. Having a playbook in advance speeds up decision-making and allows teams to respond faster when conditions change.
Validate backup options are operationally ready. Confirm carrier certifications and equipment availability and align internally on approval processes. If possible, test alternate routes or modes before they become necessary. Building agility into a network now enables teams to respond proactively instead of making reactive, costly decisions.
When looking at southern borders, Uber Freight recommends shippers actively re-evaluate Laredo transloading vs. B1 reliance given current conditions and regulations:
Structural B1 capacity constraint: The pool of B1 drivers is no longer capable of absorbing market growth. Export shipments in Nuevo Laredo are increasingly stalled awaiting incoming northbound B1 drivers to complete the import-export cycle.
The import/export imbalance risk: Relying strictly on direct-trailer B1 capacity ties export reliability to import arrivals. Because US-MX trade volumes are naturally imbalanced, export supply chains are exposed to severe delays beyond their control.
Decoupling supply chain velocity via transloading: Shippers must reconsider the transload model in Laredo, TX as a primary operating strategy. While unit costs may differ, transloading decouples export velocity from import availability, freeing capacity and preventing freight from getting trapped at the border.
Navigating uncertainty with Uber Freight
Cross-border freight continues to flow, but the environment it moves through is becoming more complex. Success depends on preparing for change before it impacts operations.
Uber Freight offers the best-in-class cross-border freight services that keep supply chains moving. As a partner in cross-border logistics, Uber Freight helps shippers navigate changing conditions across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
With a commitment to process optimization, personalized customer service, and legal compliance, our
experts ensure customs teams are prepared for anything—whether that’s working with teams on IEEPA refunds or rerouting freight when disruptions occur.
Connect with an expert today.