The Freight Economist
Weekly market update
The Freight Economist is back—now weekly—with the data-driven market intelligence your business needs to stay competitive. Read on for a breakdown of shifting freight rates and upcoming market outlooks.
The spot market is softening in August
In August, the freight market continued to soften as seasonal pressures ease, though spot rates remain above May levels. Year-over-year spot rates have shown significant growth, with van, reefer, and flatbed rates increasing by 39%, 32%, and 38% respectively. Contract rates have also risen by 16% to 20% across all trailer types.
LTL and parcel rates fell in July
In July, intermodal rates remained stable with a minor 0.1% increase, maintaining a favorable 3.8% year-over-year gain amidst a generally tight market. Conversely, LTL prices dropped 4.6% as the market softened, though they remain up 10.7% year-over-year. Parcel delivery prices also decreased by 0.8%, yet they continue to trend 8.6% higher than the previous year, surpassing typical annual growth rates of 5% to 8%.
Tractor and trailer orders contracted alongside the softening market, but lead times remain high
June’s 50% drop in van trailer orders was followed by an 18% decline in sleeper tractor orders in July, though tractor orders still grew a robust 136% YoY. This 7-month surge in orders pushed tractor sales up 20% YoY, setting the stage for early capacity recovery. However, high order volumes are extending average lead times to 10.5 months in 2026 (up from 7 months in 2025), which may delay a full capacity recovery until 2027 as carriers wait longer for equipment.
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