Why now is the time to lock in intermodal freight rates
The standard advice in freight when truckload rates rise is to consider shifting volume to intermodal. Currently, intermodal freight rates still run below truckload. But today’s market conditions are closing the window of opportunity faster than most shippers are accounting for.
The market is already seeing a surge in intermodal freight rates, well before peak season demand hits. In California and Texas, rates increased during bid season, a leading signal that broader increases were coming. FTR forecasts 2026 intermodal freight rates increasing 6.2%, excluding fuel, so the shippers who act now can lock in rates before they go up further.
The gap—and why it’s closing
OTR linehaul van rates are up 25% year-over-year, excluding fuel. Tender rejections are sitting at 82%. The pressure driving this isn't cyclical, as the market is experiencing carrier exits tied to stricter CDL enforcement, increased routing guide instability, and other regulatory changes that are making truckload capacity more volatile and less predictable.
On the intermodal side, capacity remains relatively stable, providing shippers with a reliable alternative as the market continues to tighten. Although diesel prices are rising, intermodal fuel surcharges remain significantly lower per mile than truckload. Linehaul rate increases also typically lag truckload by three to six months, keeping current pricing favorable for shippers. The real question is for how long.
Produce season drives a domino effect
In addition to these structural challenges, a new pressure is being layered on: produce season. Produce season often creates a domino effect in the market. OTR capacity tightens, which pushes more volume toward intermodal. As additional demand tightens intermodal capacity, rates increase.
The domino effect matters because many shippers are still benchmarking intermodal against current truckload rates rather than where pricing is likely to be in Q3 and Q4. That can lead to an underestimation of how quickly the cost advantage can change.
Advice for shippers
Lock in intermodal freight rates and capacity
Identify freight best suited for intermodal—longer hauls (750+ miles) and non-time-critical shipments—and begin converting lanes now. The current pricing window is likely the most favorable that shippers will see in 2026, making it the time to secure 12-month intermodal agreements.
Once produce season demand hits, expect rates to increase and capacity to decrease. Shippers with lanes in Southern California and Texas should start there, as those markets are already seeing signs of tightening.
Model intermodal under a tighter OTR scenario
Benchmarking against today’s OTR rates underestimates how quickly the market can change. For lanes where service requirements allow, pre-negotiate 6- to 12-month intermodal programs before the market tightens further.
Treat intermodal as a governed capacity lever
Pre-approved intermodal programs help shippers move volume quickly when OTR spot rates spike, tender rejections rise, or service volatility occurs. Shippers should identify eligible lanes and integrate them into their routing guides now. Rather than reacting to market changes, shippers can proactively build modal flexibility into their networks, creating a more resilient supply chain ahead of peak season.
Get a contract rate via RFP
To build a stronger network, consider working with a partner. Uber Freight offers multiple rate options, including intermodal contract rates through an RFP process, spot options via Uber Freight Shipping, and an intermodal API.
How Uber Freight can help
As one of the largest IMCs in North America, Uber Freight combines rail and drayage services into a single intermodal solution, offering access to 90,000+ containers and all Class I railroads. Whether shippers are new to intermodal or looking to diversify their networks, current market conditions are creating a clear window of opportunity. Those who act before peak season will be better positioned on cost, capacity, and service reliability heading into the back half of the year.
If you’re ready to flex your network without sacrificing cost or service, contact us to get started.