Q3 2025 Insights and recommendations for shippers and carriers

Updated October 9, 2025

As we close out the third quarter of 2025, the freight market remains uncertain. The average effective tariff rate rose to 16.4%—the highest since 1936—and manufacturing and wholesale sectors are seeing signs of inflation. Capacity is also continuing to exit the market, dipping below pre-pandemic levels. To stay ahead and navigate potential volatility as new challenges and opportunities emerge, logistics teams need to be proactive and data-driven. 

Our latest Quarterly Market Update and Outlook Report provides valuable insights to help shippers, carriers, and logistics professionals make informed decisions. This quarter (Q3 2025), we’ll examine the latest trends in U.S. truckload, LTL, and cross-border freight, as well as key factors impacting the global supply chain.

U.S. trucking: Navigating a shifting landscape

With the current tariff rate, prices are expected to increase by 1.4%, resulting in an average annual loss of $1,900 per household. Tariffs disproportionately affect clothing, footwear, vehicles, and electrical equipment. For manufacturers, tariffs affect the prices of commodities, like metals and minerals, and machinery. As a result, the manufacturing and wholesale sectors are experiencing signs of inflation. These factors, alongside a slowing job market, create significant headwinds for truckload demand despite a recent surge from pre-stocking. 

While seasonality remains the primary driver, freight-generating sectors have mostly stagnated. The soft market has also pushed carrier margins to 15-year lows, with forecasters anticipating that it will continue through the first half of 2026. 

Most forecasts for spot and contract rates predict the flat market to continue through H1 2026, but the risk to the upside is much higher.   

Given the fragility of the current soft market, shippers should closely monitor the market and be prepared for potential volatility. Now is the time for shippers to solidify relationships with key carriers and keep mitigation strategies top of mind.

Our recommendations:

• For shippers:
  • Establish strategic relationships with key providers in your network and strengthen carrier relationships. 
  • Understand your partners’ financials and prepare for multiple scenarios and market conditions in 2026. 
  • Adopt flexible contract terms such as index-based and cost-plus contracts. These offer protection against market fluctuations. 
  • Establish symbiotic, long-term goals with key partners. 
  • Partner with carriers on company initiatives focused on technology, best practices, and streamlining business operations. 
  • Develop formal processes to address service and performance improvement plans. 
• For carriers:
  • Focus on building strong relationships with shippers who value long-term partnerships and prioritize fair rates.
  • Optimize operations and improve efficiency to maintain profitability in a potentially volatile market.
  • Stay informed about market trends and adjust pricing strategies accordingly.

LTL market:  Focus on efficiency and collaboration

LTL demand remained low through H1, down 4% year-over-year, but LTL still remains healthy with good alternatives for shippers. LTL pricing is expected to have a minimal impact on shippers’ budgets over the next 12 calendar months. While the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) changes created some disruption, several carriers have eased their stance. LTL carrier sentiment is also expected to remain flat to down for H2 2025 and early H1 2026. 

We expect general rate increases (GRIs) to remain in the 3% to 5% range, although they may be negotiable. Additionally, any uptick in pricing and volume should be slow unless there is a sudden increase in demand for truckload capacity, which could shift volume shipments to LTL. 

Our recommendations:

• For shippers:
  • Use the current market conditions to negotiate competitive rates and secure capacity for your LTL shipments. This includes renewing with higher service incumbents and using niche regional or low-cost carriers. 
  • Embrace technology solutions to streamline procurement and improve efficiency.
  • Prioritize best practices, including productive carrier collaboration, data-driven pricing strategies, and packaging improvements.
• For carriers:
  • • Seek strategic growth partners with a high degree of tech enablement to help drive cost-out initiatives.
    • Continue to invest in technology and internal efficiencies to maintain profitability.
    • Collaborate with shippers to optimize operations and improve service levels.

Cross-border shipping: Addressing challenges and navigating uncertainty

New U.S. tariffs continue to pressure exporters, raising uncertainty for the second half of 2025. Now more than ever, shippers and carriers need to be aware of the unique challenges in each region. Capacity, freight volume, cargo theft, and economic uncertainty are all factors that can impact cross-border operations.

Mexico’s economy is expected to maintain modest growth in 2025, with nearshoring under the USMCA continuing to attract investment. Automotive, electronics, and pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding operations to take advantage of shorter supply chains and lack of tariffs. That said, U.S. trade frictions and new tariffs are reducing export volumes in auto and other key sectors. 

While forecasts for full-year growth remain weak, a slight recovery is expected in 2026. However, outlooks are cautious with productivity challenges, policy risks, and potential USMCA disputes. 

Cross-border carriers should continue to prioritize securing consistent volume and keeping their trucks moving as freight volumes remain volatile during this period of uncertainty. Shippers should continue to collaborate with core carriers to secure capacity, align on market shifts, and proactively adapt to changing operational dynamics.  

In Canada, U.S. trade is weighing on the cross-border freight market, with U.S. tariffs putting pressure on targeted industries. Manufacturing across heavy industrial equipment, appliances, and electronics is also contracting. Additionally, annual seasonality in the spot market dampened, adding pressure to contract rates through early Q3. Moving into Q4, shippers should optimize cross-border flows, maintain access to capacity through RFQs or mini-bids, and implement network efficiencies.  

Our recommendations:

• • • For shippers:
      • In Mexico, remain flexible to optimize operations and strengthen partnerships with incumbent carriers. Implement alternate border crossings, transloading, and different transportation modes, and respond proactively to changing conditions. 
      • In Canada, maintain access to capacity through RFQs or mini-bids as the market rebalances, and optimize cross-border flows by utilizing zone skipping or non-resident importer status.
      • For both regions, seek to implement network efficiencies with technology solutions, such as Uber Freight’s Canadian LTL services, and work closely with your Uber Freight representative to anticipate regulatory changes, tariff impacts, and shifting trade conditions. 
    • For carriers:
      • Prioritize securing consistent volume and keeping trucks moving.
      • Invest in security measures to protect cargo from theft.
      • Stay informed about economic and regulatory changes in each country.

Looking ahead: Preparing for the unexpected

The fourth quarter of 2025 will be a pivotal time for the freight market. Evolving trade policies and market changes that occur during this time will likely impact the first half of 2026. Shippers and carriers should stay informed about market trends, leverage technology to improve efficiency, and build strong relationships with their partners. By staying agile and proactive, logistics professionals can navigate the challenges and capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead.

For a more in-depth look at the Q3 2025 freight market outlook, including insights on the global supply chain, warehousing, and sustainability, read the full Q3 Market Update and Outlook Report.

*All data is generated by Uber Freight internal indices using a weighted combination of truck and driver availability for supply, and manufacturing output, goods consumption, imports and exports for demand.