Q2 2025 Insights and recommendations for shippers and carriers

Updated June 24, 2025

As we move through the second quarter of 2025, the freight market continues to navigate uncertainty. While the market was headed for a gradual recovery before tariffs, any increases to the average tariff rate could begin to impact demand. To stay ahead and navigate potential volatility as new challenges and opportunities emerge, logistics teams need to be proactive and data-driven.

Our latest Quarterly Market Update and Outlook Report provides valuable insights to help shippers, carriers, and logistics professionals make informed decisions. This quarter (Q2 2025), we’ll examine the latest trends in U.S. truckload, LTL, and cross-border freight, as well as key factors impacting the global supply chain.

U.S. trucking: Navigating a shifting landscape

With the average tariff sitting around 18% after trade agreements and temporary tariff suspensions, there is still uncertainty surrounding where the rate will land after the 90-day pause on July 9th.

Currently, a 1% increase in the average tariff rate could decrease truckload demand by 0.15% to 0.25%. This means a 10% rate could reduce demand by about 2%, whereas rates of 18% to 28% could reduce demand by 4% to 6%. If this occurs, ocean will be the most affected, followed by intermodal and truckload. Containerized imports may also be impacted, depending on the final tariff and trade agreements between China and the U.S.

While more time is needed to see the true impact of tariffs and evolving policies, the U.S. truckload market is shifting. Although seasonality continues to remain the primary driver, and supply hasn’t yet seen any impact from tariffs, the manufacturing economy is contracting. There is also early indication of tighter capacity, with truckload carrier balance sheet data indicating that carrier profitability fell to its lowest levels since Q1 2010.

Spot rates also remain approximately 18% below operating costs per loaded mile, but are currently following seasonal trends. Typically, spot rates experience a rapid increase from late May into early June, with tightness in southern markets like Florida, California, Texas, and Arizona due to the summer produce season. As produce volume decreases after the 4th of July, the market will likely soften, except in California, where shippers are preparing for peak season.

That said, shippers should be watching the market and prepared for potential volatility, as the spot rate increase between April and July often indicates the market’s trend for the remainder of the year. While uncertain, the possibility of new tariffs and higher inflation could lead to increased pressure on rates and market tightening. Now is the time for shippers to solidify relationships with key carriers and keep mitigation strategies top of mind.

Our recommendations:

• For shippers:
  • Maintain high first tender acceptance (FTA) rates by establishing strategic relationships with key providers in your network and fostering long-term, collaborative goals.
  • To navigate volatility, partner with strategic carriers to gain cost and price transparency within your network. Create an action plan to address out-of-process lanes proactively.
  • Stay informed about market conditions and adjust your transportation strategies accordingly. Consider diversifying your carrier base and exploring alternative modes of transportation to mitigate risk.
• For carriers:
  • Focus on building strong relationships with shippers who value long-term partnerships and prioritize fair rates.
  • Optimize operations and improve efficiency to maintain profitability in a potentially volatile market.
  • Stay informed about market trends and adjust pricing strategies accordingly.

LTL market: Efficiency and collaboration are key

The LTL market continued to experience lower demand through Q1 after a weak Q4. Even so, LTL carriers are working towards economic acceleration throughout Q2 by leveraging technology, improving internal efficiencies, and being more selective in the freight they haul.

For shippers, this presents an opportunity to secure competitive rates and build stronger relationships with LTL carriers. General rate increases (GRI) are expected to be below 5%, and experts at Uber Freight estimate that most negotiations with carriers will land at a 2% to 3% increase. To offset any increases, shippers should look for ways to streamline their LTL procurement processes and work closely with carriers to optimize operations and drive mutual success.

Our recommendations:

• For shippers:
  • Use the current market conditions to negotiate competitive rates and secure capacity for your LTL shipments. This includes renewing with higher service incumbents and using niche regional or low-cost carriers. 
  • Embrace technology solutions to streamline procurement and improve efficiency.
  • Prioritize best practices, including productive carrier collaboration, data-driven pricing strategies, and packaging improvements.
• For carriers:
  • Seek strategic growth partners with a high degree of tech enablement to help drive cost-out initiatives.
  • Continue to invest in technology and internal efficiencies to maintain profitability.
  • Collaborate with shippers to optimize operations and improve service levels.

Cross-border shipping: Addressing challenges and navigating uncertainty

U.S. tariffs continue to put pressure on cross-border shipping and the North American supply chain. Now more than ever, shippers and carriers need to be aware of the unique challenges in each region. Capacity, freight volume, cargo theft, and economic uncertainty are all factors that can impact cross-border operations.

Although Mexico’s economy is navigating challenges due to trade tension with the U.S, the inflation rate is easing. Nearshoring is also gaining momentum again, with Mexican exports remaining largely exempt from new tariffs. Cross-border carriers should continue to prioritize securing consistent volume and keeping their trucks moving as freight volumes remain volatile during this period of uncertainty. Shippers should also continue to proactively address shifting conditions and stay up-to-date with the latest foreign trade policies.
The Canadian economy experienced better-than-expected growth in Q1 as consumer spending was up. Currently, U.S. tariffs are putting pressure on output and new orders, resulting in a slight decline in the PMI. As the market rebalances, shippers should conduct RFPs and secure capacity at prevailing rates, optimize cross-border flows, and implement network efficiencies.

Our recommendations:

• For shippers:
  • In Mexico, remain flexible to optimize operations and strengthen partnerships with incumbent carriers. Implement alternate border crossings, transloading, and different transportation modes, and respond proactively to changing conditions.
  • In Canada, issue full network RFPs and secure capacity at current rates as the market starts to re-balance.
  • For both regions, seek to implement network efficiencies with technology solutions, such as Uber Freight’s Canadian LTL services.
• For carriers:
  • Prioritize securing consistent volume and keeping trucks moving.
  • Invest in security measures to protect cargo from theft.
  • Stay informed about economic and regulatory changes in each country.

Looking ahead: Preparing for the unexpected

The second quarter of 2025 is a pivotal time for the freight market. Evolving trade policies and market changes that occur during this time will likely impact how the rest of the year trends. Shippers and carriers should stay informed about market trends, leverage technology to improve efficiency, and build strong relationships with their partners. By staying agile and proactive, logistics professionals can navigate the challenges and capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead.
For a more in-depth look at the Q2 2025 freight market outlook, including insights on the global supply chain, warehousing, and sustainability, read the full Q2 Market Update and Outlook Report.

*All data is generated by Uber Freight internal indices using a weighted combination of truck and driver availability for supply, and manufacturing output, goods consumption, imports and exports for demand.